It was eight weeks prior when the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained if his displays were an indicator or the source of the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. After the England international drilled in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win any of their first six games, are somehow a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard question to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
According to Opta, in only two games has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a side that have just won ten consecutive victories, they appear strangely fragile – but right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their talisman to save the day with two crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more versus the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents had more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa must confront in the near future. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet find their top level.
- The main striker might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine Rogers now would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential England player.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. As the match-winner faced the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
